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Linah Alsaafin

Israel and Saudi Arabia may seem unlikely allies in regional politics but recent developments have pushed Riyadh and Tel Aviv closer together, setting the stage for the Middle East's strangest bedfellows. The covert ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, based on an alliance against the "common threat" of Iran, are part of a new regional paradigm, analysts say. The inclusion of Israel as a potential partner reflects a break from the fragmented order in the Middle East, where since the early 2000s the United States has sought to create a hegemonic system to dominate West-friendly states, brought about by either elections or deposition. Saudi Arabia, capitalising on its religious standing in the Arab world, broke through the ranks to establish its own order, one that included seeking ties with Israel on the basis of land for peace. In tandem it worked on the preservation of its Sunni identity and alliances to counterbalance Shia Iran's influence.

The ultimate deal
According to Ofer Zalzberg from the International Crisis Group, this shifting political order must pertain to the parameters of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, which the US and Saudi leaders see as an imperative condition for enabling such a regional cooperation. "Giving birth to a visible Saudi-Israeli alliance that will deter Iran … is in many ways the very rationale for advancing Israeli-Palestinian peace in Washington and Riyadh," Zalzberg said. The White House, under the efforts of senior adviser and the president's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is busy devising a new plan to break the deadlock of the peace process, which President Donald Trump has described as "the ultimate deal".

The Saudis understand pretty well that it is a good time to be good friends with Israel.

Their hopes lie on the support of regional powerhouse Saudi Arabia, which will depend on building closer ties between the oil-rich kingdom and Israel - despite the two not having overt diplomatic relations.

The motives of Saudi Arabia, said Kobi Michael, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, are based on the shared strategic interest with other countries in the region, which he described as the "pragmatic Arab camp". "Egypt, Jordan, the Gulf states - excluding Qatar - have two strategic threats: Iran and the Salafi or radical Islamic terrorism," Michael said. "Unfortunately, the US left a vacuum in the region which was filled by the Russians in Syria and by the Iranians and their proxies in other parts of the Middle East. "Israel is perceived as the most reliable potential ally," he continued. "Therefore, the Saudis understand pretty well that it is a good time to be good friends with Israel."

Normalisation of relations
According to Michael, Saudi Arabia has realised that its support of the Palestinian peace process has become a burden on its shoulders and that there are more issues that hold strategic importance.Where it once drew up what became known as the Arab peace initiative for lasting peace with Israel in 2002, the country is now willing to push the Israelis and Palestinians to accept Kushner's peace plan, Michael argued.

Israel 'willing to share' Iran intelligence with Saudis

"The Saudis are much less obliged to the Palestinians than before and are willing to agree to an interim agreement - which is my interpretation of the US initiative," Michael said. "This is an opportunity for them to strengthen the religious importance and their authority of Mecca and Medina (the two holiest sites in Islam) at the expense of Jerusalem and the religious significance the Haram al-Sharif (Islam's third-holiest site) holds, which in turn will strengthen their position against Iran," he added. Once the Palestinians will be pressured enough to enter the political process seriously, Michael added, an upgrade of relations between the Saudis and the Israelis will take place where it will transcend the covert layer. "This will be a sort of incentive for the Israeli leadership to make some further moves in the peace process with the Palestinians which they will see as something they can benefit from - the normalisation of relations," Michael said.

Reordering of regional threats
Khalil Shaheen, a political analyst based in the West Bank city of Ramallah, said that the "reordering" of regional threats will come at the expense of the Palestinian cause. "The issue of normalisation is no longer controversial," he said. "But it is important to realise that the thawing of relations between Arab countries and Israel is not connected to bilateralness." Israel has a military, nuclear and hi-tech capability not matched by other countries in the region, he added. The alignment of some of the Arab countries to the interests of Israel is due to maintaining their control under hegemonic arrangements. "The decline of US power in the Middle East has resulted in Israel filling in the gaps that US foreign policy would have previously filled," Shaheen explained. "These Arab states are motivated by the survival of their regimes, and that is what pushes them to the stronger state in the region," he added.

Iran is an 'excuse'
Although Saudi officials remained silent on underhanded relations, their Israeli counterparts have made no efforts to hide that meetings between the two countries have taken place, with invitations for future visits. Last week, Israeli Communications Minister Ayoub Kara invited Saudi's Grand Mufti Abdul Aziz al-Sheikh to visit Israel, and two days later, Israel's chief-of-staff Gadi Eizenkot gave the first-ever official interview to Saudi news outlet Elaph, saying that Israel is ready to share intelligence with Saudi Arabia on Iran. The recent domestic upheaval in Saudi Arabia, which saw the arrest of princes, ministers and high-profile businessmen carried out by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was seen as a sign to crush dissent under the banner of cracking down on corruption.

"The political changes in Saudi Arabia and the desire to consolidate power is the main reason why these relations with Israel were opened," said Mahjoob Zweiri, an associate professor with the Gulf Studies Program department at Qatar University. "Yet Iran, which is used as an excuse, isn't too worried about this potential alliance," he continued. "This will, in fact, help Iran to present itself as a soft power to better its image in the region" - by means of presenting itself as a bastion of resistance against Israel. Ofer Zalzberg said that the Israeli prime minister will have to tread carefully when it comes to reassessing ties with Saudi Arabia.  "Netanyahu is caught between how Mohammed bin Salman's domestic reforms will transform Saudi Arabia to a country that will be easier for Israel to agree on a regional future with, and apprehension about the fate of these reforms and indeed, of bin Salman's rule," Zalzberg said.

[*]Ibrahim Fraihat

[*]Driven by succession plans and a strategy to confront Iran's influence in the Arab region, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has engaged in several taboo-breaking steps. These include the arrest of dozens of princes and ministersand a process of normalising relations, at least partially, with Israel. But taking concrete measures to end the Arab boycott of Israel, without reaching a just solution to the Palestinian issue first, will be detrimental to both Palestine and Saudi Arabia. 

[*]On Thursday, the Israeli army's chief-of-staff, Gadi Eizenkot, gave the first-ever interview to a Saudi news outlet, saying that Israel is ready to share intelligence with Saudi Arabia on Iran. Also for the first time, Israel co-sponsored with Saudi Arabia a resolution against Syria in the UN Human Rights Council last week. Furthermore, Israeli Communications Minister Ayoub Kara extended a warm invitation to Saudi Arabia's Grand Mufti, Abdul Aziz Al Sheikh, to visit Israel for what he said were his friendly comments about the country. 

To "legitimise" steps taken to normalise relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia summoned Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to Riyadh last week, to convince him to accept a peace plan put forward by US President Donald Trump's special adviser, Jared Kushner. Saudi-Israeli collaboration is an integral part of that plan. According to the New York Times, the proposal could include, among other normalisation measures, "overflights by Israeli passenger planes, visas for business people, and telecommunication links" with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the UAE.

If MBS proceeds with the plan, he risks Saudi Arabia's leading position in the Islamic world being delegitimised.

Abbas' cooperation is essential for Saudi-Israeli normalisation to proceed; without it, the Saudi move would be seen as a betrayal to the Arab and Muslim position on Palestine. Although not much has been revealed about what really happened during Abbas' visit to Riyadh, some reports talk about the Saudi leadership pressuring Abbas to accept whatever plan Kushner puts forward, or to resign. Abbas is in an unenviable position, as pressure on him is likely to increase when Kushner's plan is released in the not-so-distant future. He needs Saudi and US financial support for the Palestinian Authority (PA) to continue to function. However, the Kushner deal will not do even minimum justice to the Palestinian national project. While the deal offers strategic gains to Israel, such as ending a Saudi Arab boycott, it offers only tactical gains for the Palestinians, such as financial assistance, prisoners' release, and a silent, partial freeze of settlement activities outside the large settlement blocs.

[*]The Kushner deal will practically fragment the Saudi-sponsored 2002 Arab Peace Plan that offered Israel full normalisation in return for full withdrawal from Arab lands occupied in 1967. By pressuring Abbas to accept the deal, the Saudi leadership is undermining its own initiative, accepting to partially normalise relations with Israel in exchange for an alliance against Iran.

Moreover, the Saudi normalisation plan is likely to further complicate internal Palestinian reconciliation. Aiming to end Iranian influence in Gaza, Saudi Arabia's close ally, Egypt, brokered - or as some view it, dictated - Palestinian reconciliation that resulted in Hamas surrendering power to the Palestinian Authority.

To pressure Abbas further, Saudi Arabia reportedly summoned his bitter enemy, Mohammed Dahlan, to Riyadh at the same time he was there. The purpose of the move was supposedly to have the two discuss Fatah's internal "reconciliation". In other words, Saudi Arabia brought Dahlan into the scene in case the PA president rejects the Kushner deal. In what could be interpreted as a sign of resistance to the Saudi pressure, some commentators in the West Bank and Gaza observed that upon his return to Ramallah, Abbas started cracking down on Dahlan's supporters.
Just a few days later, another blow was dealt to the PA. On Sunday, the US administration announced that the license of the PLO office in Washington will not be renewed - this could not be a mere coincidence. In fact, it might be another strong sign that Abbas continues to resist Saudi-US pressure. In line with this argument, Mohammad Shtayyeh, Fatah Central Committee member and one of the candidates to succeed Abbas, told me, "Reconciliation will not be a railway for a regional political project at the expense of the Palestinian cause."

Saudi's demands have put the Palestinian president is a very difficult position, as his people would overwhelmingly reject the stipulations of the Kushner deal. This situation is reminiscent of his predecessor, Yasser Arafat's, dilemma at Camp David in 2000, when he faced US pressure to accept Ehud Barak's plan offering partial Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and Gaza. Immediately after the Camp David Accords, Arafat was sidelined and, two years later, died mysteriously. To what extent Abbas will be able to resist US-Saudi pressure and hang on to his presidency is yet to be seen.

What is clear, however, is that Saudi Arabia will proceed with its normalisation efforts with Israel, with or without Abbas. The way MBS is managing succession at home and escalation with Iran abroad suggests that he is up for making radical decisions.  
But his move on Israel might not work as well as some of his other bold policies have. In fact, he might end up shooting himself in the foot. Pushing through with the Kushner deal would mean acting against the consensus of Arab and Muslim countries, which reject normalisation with Israel without a fair and just solution to the Palestinian cause. Saudi Arabia might receive support from countries like the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, and Jordan, but not from the rest of the 57 Muslim-majority member states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Kuwait, for example, is already holding anti-normalisation activities at home.

If MBS proceeds with the plan, he risks Saudi Arabia's leading position in the Islamic world being delegitimised. His father, King Salman, the Custodian of the two Holy Mosques, will appear to be conceding on the third holiest site for Muslims - al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. If he normalises relations with Israel, MBS will be giving Tehran the strongest hand to play against Riyadh, in Iran's efforts to delegitimise Saudi Arabia in the Muslim world.   

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GOVERNANCE IN THE MUSLIM WORLD - by moeenyaseen - 05-06-2007, 11:11 AM
RE: Authoritarianism and Dictatorship - by globalvision2000administrator - 11-21-2017, 07:41 PM

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